Pollster Ratings

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Files	Size	Format	Created	Updated	License	Source
2	0 B	csv		over 6 years ago		FiveThirtyEight - Pollster Ratings

This directory contains the data behind FiveThirtyEight's pollster ratings. See also: Past data: pollster-stats-full.xlsx contains a spreadsheet with all of the summary data and calculations involv...

File	Description	Size	Last modified	Download
pollster-ratings			over 6 years ago	pollster-ratings
raw-polls			over 6 years ago	raw-polls

Data Previews

pollster-ratings

Schema

name	type	format
pollster	string	default
# of polls	integer	default
ncpp / aapor / roper	string	default
exclusively live caller with cellphones	string	default
methodology	string	default
banned by 538	string	default
historical advanced plus-minus	number	default
predictive plus-minus	number	default
538 grade	string	default
mean-reverted bias	string	default
races called correctly	string	default
misses outside moe	string	default
simple average error	number	default
simple expected error	number	default
simple plus-minus	number	default
advanced plus-minus	number	default
mean-reverted advanced plus minus	number	default
predictive plus-minus	number	default
# of polls for bias analysis	integer	default
bias	string	default
mean-reverted bias	string	default
house effect	string	default

raw-polls

Schema

name	type	format
pollno	integer	default
race	string	default
year	integer	default
location	string	default
type_simple	string	default
type_detail	string	default
pollster	string	default
partisan	string	default
polldate	string	default
samplesize	integer	default
cand1_name	string	default
cand1_pct	integer	default
cand2_name	string	default
cand2_pct	integer	default
cand3_pct	string	default
margin_poll	integer	default
electiondate	string	default
cand1_actual	number	default
cand2_actual	number	default
margin_actual	number	default
error	number	default
bias	number	default
rightcall	integer	default
comment	string	default

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings

This directory contains the data behind FiveThirtyEight's pollster ratings.

See also:

Past data:

2014
2016

pollster-stats-full.xlsx contains a spreadsheet with all of the summary data and calculations involved in determining the pollster ratings as well as descriptions for each column.

pollster-ratings.csv has ratings and calculations for each pollster. A copy of this data and descriptions for each column can also be found in pollster-stats-full.xlsx.

raw-polls.csv contains all of the polls analyzed to give each pollster a grade. Descriptions for each column are in the table below.

Header	Definition
`pollno`	FiveThirtyEight poll ID number
`race`	Election polled
`year`	Year of election (not year of poll)
`location`	Location (state or Congressional district, or US for national polls)
`type_simple`	Type of election (5 categories)
`type_detail`	Detailed type of election (this distinguishes between Republican and Democratic primaries, for example, whereas `type_simple` does not)
`pollster`	Pollster name
`partisan`	Flag for internal/partisan poll. D indicates Democratic poll, R indicates Republican poll, I indicates poll put out by independent candidate's campaign. Note that different sources define these categories differently and our categorization will often reflect the original source's definition. In other words, these definitions may be inconsistent and should be used carefully.
`polldate`	Median field date of the poll
`samplesize`	Sample size of the poll. Where missing, this is estimated from the poll's margin of error, or similar polls conducted by the same polling firm. A sample size of 600 is used if no better estimate is available.
`cand1_name`	Name of Candidate #1. Candidates #1 and #2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election (regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll). In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate #1 is the Democrat and simply listed as Democrat.
`cand1_pct`	Candidate #1's share of the vote in the poll.
`cand2_name`	Name of Candidate #2. Candidates #1 and #2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election (regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll). In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate #2 is the Republican and simply listed as Republican
`cand2_pct`	Candidate #2's share of the vote in the poll.
`cand3_pct`	Share of the vote for the top candidate listed in the poll, other than Candidate #1 and Candidate #2.
`margin_poll`	Projected margin of victory (defeat) for Candidate #1. This is calculated as `cand1_pct - cand2_pct`. In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic lead; negative values a Repubican lead.
`electiondate`	Date of election
`cand1_actual`	Actual share of vote for Candidate #1
`cand2_actual`	Actual share of vote for Candidate #2
`margin_actual`	Actual margin in the election. This is calculated as `cand1_actual - cand2_actual`. In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic win; negative values a Republican win.
`error`	Absolute value of the difference between the actual and polled result. This is calculated as `abs(margin_poll - margin_actual)`
`bias`	Statistical bias of the poll. This is calculated only for races in which the top two finishers were a Democrat and a Republican. It is calculated as `margin_poll - margin_actual`. Positive values indicate a Democratic bias (the Democrat did better in the poll than the election). Negative values indicate a Republican bias.
`rightcall`	Flag to indicate whether the pollster called the outcome correctly, i.e. whether the candidate they had listed in 1st place won the election. A 1 indicates a correct call and a 0 an incorrect call; 0.5 indicates that the pollster had two or more candidates tied for the lead and one of the tied candidates won.
`comment`	Additional information, such as alternate names for the poll.

This dataset was scraped from FiveThirtyEight - pollster-ratings

Data Files

Data Previews

pollster-ratings

Schema

raw-polls

Schema

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings