Pollster Ratings

FilesSizeFormatCreatedUpdatedLicenseSource
20 Bcsvover 6 years agoFiveThirtyEight - Pollster Ratings

This directory contains the data behind FiveThirtyEight's pollster ratings. See also: Past data: pollster-stats-full.xlsx contains a spreadsheet with all of the summary data and calculations involv...

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Data Files

FileDescriptionSizeLast modifiedDownload
pollster-ratings
over 6 years ago
pollster-ratings
raw-polls
over 6 years ago
raw-polls

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pollster-ratings

Schema

nametypeformat
pollsterstringdefault
# of pollsintegerdefault
ncpp / aapor / roperstringdefault
exclusively live caller with cellphonesstringdefault
methodologystringdefault
banned by 538stringdefault
historical advanced plus-minusnumberdefault
predictive plus-minusnumberdefault
538 gradestringdefault
mean-reverted biasstringdefault
races called correctlystringdefault
misses outside moestringdefault
simple average errornumberdefault
simple expected errornumberdefault
simple plus-minusnumberdefault
advanced plus-minusnumberdefault
mean-reverted advanced plus minusnumberdefault
predictive plus-minusnumberdefault
# of polls for bias analysisintegerdefault
biasstringdefault
mean-reverted biasstringdefault
house effectstringdefault

raw-polls

Schema

nametypeformat
pollnointegerdefault
racestringdefault
yearintegerdefault
locationstringdefault
type_simplestringdefault
type_detailstringdefault
pollsterstringdefault
partisanstringdefault
polldatestringdefault
samplesizeintegerdefault
cand1_namestringdefault
cand1_pctintegerdefault
cand2_namestringdefault
cand2_pctintegerdefault
cand3_pctstringdefault
margin_pollintegerdefault
electiondatestringdefault
cand1_actualnumberdefault
cand2_actualnumberdefault
margin_actualnumberdefault
errornumberdefault
biasnumberdefault
rightcallintegerdefault
commentstringdefault

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings

This directory contains the data behind FiveThirtyEight's pollster ratings.

See also:

Past data:

pollster-stats-full.xlsx contains a spreadsheet with all of the summary data and calculations involved in determining the pollster ratings as well as descriptions for each column.

pollster-ratings.csv has ratings and calculations for each pollster. A copy of this data and descriptions for each column can also be found in pollster-stats-full.xlsx.

raw-polls.csv contains all of the polls analyzed to give each pollster a grade. Descriptions for each column are in the table below.

HeaderDefinition
pollnoFiveThirtyEight poll ID number
raceElection polled
yearYear of election (not year of poll)
locationLocation (state or Congressional district, or US for national polls)
type_simpleType of election (5 categories)
type_detailDetailed type of election (this distinguishes between Republican and Democratic primaries, for example, whereas type_simple does not)
pollsterPollster name
partisanFlag for internal/partisan poll. D indicates Democratic poll, R indicates Republican poll, I indicates poll put out by independent candidate's campaign. Note that different sources define these categories differently and our categorization will often reflect the original source's definition. In other words, these definitions may be inconsistent and should be used carefully.
polldateMedian field date of the poll
samplesizeSample size of the poll. Where missing, this is estimated from the poll's margin of error, or similar polls conducted by the same polling firm. A sample size of 600 is used if no better estimate is available.
cand1_nameName of Candidate #1. Candidates #1 and #2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election (regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll). In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate #1 is the Democrat and simply listed as Democrat.
cand1_pctCandidate #1's share of the vote in the poll.
cand2_nameName of Candidate #2. Candidates #1 and #2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election (regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll). In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate #2 is the Republican and simply listed as Republican
cand2_pctCandidate #2's share of the vote in the poll.
cand3_pctShare of the vote for the top candidate listed in the poll, other than Candidate #1 and Candidate #2.
margin_pollProjected margin of victory (defeat) for Candidate #1. This is calculated as cand1_pct - cand2_pct. In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic lead; negative values a Repubican lead.
electiondateDate of election
cand1_actualActual share of vote for Candidate #1
cand2_actualActual share of vote for Candidate #2
margin_actualActual margin in the election. This is calculated as cand1_actual - cand2_actual. In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic win; negative values a Republican win.
errorAbsolute value of the difference between the actual and polled result. This is calculated as abs(margin_poll - margin_actual)
biasStatistical bias of the poll. This is calculated only for races in which the top two finishers were a Democrat and a Republican. It is calculated as margin_poll - margin_actual. Positive values indicate a Democratic bias (the Democrat did better in the poll than the election). Negative values indicate a Republican bias.
rightcallFlag to indicate whether the pollster called the outcome correctly, i.e. whether the candidate they had listed in 1st place won the election. A 1 indicates a correct call and a 0 an incorrect call; 0.5 indicates that the pollster had two or more candidates tied for the lead and one of the tied candidates won.
commentAdditional information, such as alternate names for the poll.

This dataset was scraped from FiveThirtyEight - pollster-ratings

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