The insight: On a like-for-like basis, 2026 is projected at 9.0 Mt CO₂e — about +92% above the recalculated 2010–2022 average (4.71 Mt) — and ~86% of it (7.72 Mt) is air travel. It tops even the expanded 2030 (6.1 Mt) and 2034 (8.6 Mt) editions.
Why now: kicks off June 11, 2026 across the US, Canada and Mexico — the first 48-team, 104-match, three-nation finals.
Reading the data — two sources, one honest comparison
Two different measurements sit behind this story, and they are not on the same scale:
- 2010–2022 (each host's own report): South Africa 2.75, Brazil 2.27, Russia 2.16, Qatar 3.63 Mt. These use FIFA's narrower accounting boundary.
- 2026–2034 (SGR's independent projections): computed on a fuller scope — and SGR recalculates the 2010–22 average at 4.71 Mt on that same scope.
So the honest comparison is 2026 (9.0) vs the recalculated 4.71 average — both on the fuller scope → +92%. Comparing the 2026 projection straight to the older self-reported figures would overstate the jump, because those self-reports undercount (SGR's central argument: FIFA self-reports leave out most aviation — which is exactly why the historical figures sit below the recalculated average).
Put plainly: the per-edition figures span South Africa 2010 through the projected 2034 tournament. The earlier editions reflect each host's own FIFA-scope report; the 2026–2034 editions reflect SGR's fuller-scope projections. The two scopes are not directly comparable — read the 2026 figure against the recalculated 4.71 Mt average, not against the older bars.
Sources
- SGR / New Weather Institute, FIFA's Climate Blind Spot (2025) — the only independent projection for the 3-nation 2026 tournament.
- FIFA host sustainability audits via Play the Game — the per-edition history.