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Season-End Writeup (Revised)

Season-End Writeup (Revised)

This rewrite uses current_conditions.csv and focuses on season open/close timing, segment-by-segment opening order, first-snapshot daily heatmaps, and overnight maintenance effectiveness.

1) Season opening and closing timing

Definition used:

  • Opened for season = first snapshot with any skateable segment (Poor/Fair/Good/Very Good/Snow Covered).
  • Closed for season = first zero-open snapshot after the season's final open snapshot.
seasonfirst_snapshotlast_snapshotfirst_open_for_seasonlast_closed_for_seasondays_open_windowavg_open_pctpeak_open_pct
2023-20242024-01-24 03:37:31.9415802024-02-27 00:32:10.9399372024-01-24 03:37:31.9415802024-02-26 08:09:42.357276335.1587337.1795
2024-20252025-01-10 07:41:44.8023442025-03-14 16:09:56.4019912025-01-11 16:08:22.6422812025-03-05 08:11:48.0984645275.1536100
2025-20262025-12-27 19:17:23.2727972026-03-07 07:09:16.0336372025-12-31 16:28:10.1646472026-03-05 08:45:33.0843156370.0213100

2) 2023-2024: Segment first-open sequence

segment1st date opendays after the 1st segment
1Fifth → Lansdowne2024-01-24 03:37:31.9415800
2Lansdowne → Bank2024-01-24 03:37:31.9415800
3Pretoria → Fifth2024-01-24 03:37:31.9415800
4Patterson Creek → Patterson Creek2024-02-20 00:31:44.37159726.87
5Concord → Pretoria2024-02-21 00:32:15.40828927.87

2) 2024-2025: Segment first-open sequence

segment1st date opendays after the 1st segment
1Concord → Pretoria2025-01-11 16:08:22.6422810
2Fifth → Lansdowne2025-01-11 16:08:22.6422810
3Lansdowne → Bank2025-01-11 16:08:22.6422810
4Laurier → Waverley2025-01-11 16:08:22.6422810
5Patterson Creek → Patterson Creek2025-01-11 16:08:22.6422810
6Pretoria → Fifth2025-01-11 16:08:22.6422810
7Waverley → Concord2025-01-11 16:08:22.6422810
8Bank → Bronson2025-01-14 16:10:53.0120503
9Bronson → Dows Lake2025-01-14 16:10:53.0120503
10Dows Lake Loop → Dows Lake Loop2025-01-14 16:10:53.0120503
11Dows Lake → Library2025-01-14 16:10:53.0120503
12Mackenzie King → Laurier2025-01-18 16:07:53.3164767
13Rideau → Mackenzie King2025-01-18 16:07:53.3164767

2) 2025-2026: Segment first-open sequence

segment1st date opendays after the 1st segment
1Concord → Pretoria2025-12-31 16:28:10.1646470
2Fifth → Lansdowne2025-12-31 16:28:10.1646470
3Lansdowne → Bank2025-12-31 16:28:10.1646470
4Pretoria → Fifth2025-12-31 16:28:10.1646470
5Somerset → Waverley2025-12-31 16:28:10.1646470
6Waverley → Concord2025-12-31 16:28:10.1646470
7Laurier → Somerset2026-01-03 16:27:35.9892823
8Mackenzie King → Laurier2026-01-03 16:27:35.9892823
9Rideau → Mackenzie King2026-01-03 16:27:35.9892823
10Bank → Bronson2026-01-05 16:29:55.3414275
11Bronson → Dow's Lake2026-01-05 16:29:55.3414275
12Dow's Lake Loop → Dow's Lake Loop2026-01-05 16:29:55.3414275
13Dow's Lake → Library2026-01-05 16:29:55.3414275
14Patterson Creek → Patterson Creek2026-02-08 16:34:06.36159139

3) Daily first-snapshot heatmaps (by segment)

2023-2024

2023-2024 first snapshot heatmap

2024-2025

2024-2025 first snapshot heatmap

2025-2026

2025-2026 first snapshot heatmap

4) Novel analysis highlights

  • 2023-2024 rollout spread: 27.87 days from first-open segment to final first-open segment (Concord → Pretoria).
  • 2023-2024 network volatility: average open 5.2% with snapshot std dev 11.6 points.
  • 2024-2025 rollout spread: 7.00 days from first-open segment to final first-open segment (Mackenzie King → Laurier).
  • 2024-2025 network volatility: average open 75.2% with snapshot std dev 40.3 points.
  • 2025-2026 rollout spread: 39.00 days from first-open segment to final first-open segment (Patterson Creek → Patterson Creek).
  • 2025-2026 network volatility: average open 70.0% with snapshot std dev 40.1 points.

5) Maintenance quality and impact analysis

Method: for each segment and day, compare the last status of day D to the first status of day D+1, attributing overnight change to maintenance type reported at first snapshot on day D+1.

2023-2024 overnight transitions by maintenance type

seasonovernight_mainttransitionsavg_deltamedian_deltaimprove_ratedecline_rate
2023-2024No maintenance reported4080000
2023-2024Swept and flooded130.77038.50
2023-2024Swept120000
2023-2024Flooded80000
2023-2024No maintenance10000

2024-2025 overnight transitions by maintenance type

seasonovernight_mainttransitionsavg_deltamedian_deltaimprove_ratedecline_rate
2024-2025Swept and flooded3220.0302.80
2024-2025No maintenance reported1430000
2024-2025Swept116-0.220011.2
2024-2025Snow removal1040.12012.50
2024-2025Sweeping290000
2024-2025No maintenance250000
2024-2025Plowed150000

2025-2026 overnight transitions by maintenance type

seasonovernight_mainttransitionsavg_deltamedian_deltaimprove_ratedecline_rate
2025-2026Swept and flooded525-0.26010.323.6
2025-2026No maintenance1340000
2025-2026No maintenance reported1310000
2025-2026Swept840.32015.521.4
2025-2026Snow removal78-0.72016.733.3
2025-2026Sweeping130000
2025-2026Plowed11221000

Nights where maintenance would likely have been beneficial

Criteria: previous evening ended as Snow Covered, Poor, Fair, or Closed; overnight maintenance was not one of swept/flooded/plowed/snow-removal actions.

seasontotal_beneficial_nightsnights_without_active_maintenanceshare_without_active_maintenance_%
2023-202442939692.3
2024-202529816856.4
2025-202643216939.1
  • 2023-2024 best avg effect: Swept and flooded (+0.77 quality points).
  • 2023-2024 worst avg effect: Swept (+0.00 quality points).
  • 2024-2025 best avg effect: Snow removal (+0.12 quality points).
  • 2024-2025 worst avg effect: Swept (-0.22 quality points).
  • 2025-2026 best avg effect: Plowed (+2.00 quality points).
  • 2025-2026 worst avg effect: Snow removal (-0.72 quality points).