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Access dataset files directly from scripts, code, or AI agents.
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Start with these files — they give you everything you need to understand and access the dataset.
- 1. Fetch datapackage.json to inspect schema and resources
- 2. Download data resources listed in datapackage.json
- 3. Read README.md for full context
Data Views
Global Real Interest Rate, 1317–2018 (7-year average)
Country-Level Real Interest Rates, 1314–2018
Data Files
Explore with AIheadline-rates
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| year | integer | Calendar year |
| global_nominal_7y | number | Global sovereign nominal rate, 7-year centred average (%) |
| global_inflation_7y | number | Global inflation, 7-year centred average (%) |
| global_real_7y | number | Global real interest rate, 7-year centred average (%). Primary long-run trend series. |
| safe_nominal_7y | number | Safe-asset-provider sovereign nominal rate, 7-year centred average (%) |
| safe_inflation_7y | number | Safe-asset-provider inflation, 7-year centred average (%) |
| safe_real_7y | number | Safe-asset-provider real rate, 7-year centred average (%) |
| global_nominal | number | Global sovereign nominal rate, annual (%) |
| global_inflation | number | Global inflation, annual (%) |
| global_real | number | Global real interest rate, annual (%). Ex-post real rate on a GDP-weighted basis. |
| safe_nominal | number | Safe-asset-provider sovereign nominal rate, annual (%) |
| safe_inflation | number | Safe-asset-provider inflation, annual (%) |
| safe_real | number | Safe-asset-provider real rate, annual (%) |
Download
Download CSVAbout
- Annual global real interest rates, 1311–2018. Includes GDP-weighted global sovereign rates and safe-asset-provider rates, in both raw annual form and 7-year centred moving average. All rates are expressed in percent (%). Real rates are ex-post (realised inflation basis).
- Last updated
- 17 March 2026
- Total rows
- ...
- Format
- CSV
- File size
- 80.2 kB
- License
- Open Government Licence v3.0
country-rates
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| year | integer | Calendar year |
| country | string | Country name |
| real_rate | number | Real interest rate, annual (%) |
Download
Download CSVAbout
- Country-level real interest rates (not averaged), 1314–2018. Long format: one row per country per year. Countries: Italy, UK, Netherlands, Germany, France, United States, Spain, Japan. Rates in percent (%).
- Last updated
- 17 March 2026
- Total rows
- ...
- Format
- CSV
- File size
- 99.2 kB
- License
- Open Government Licence v3.0
About this dataset
Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates
Annual global real interest rates from 1311 to 2018, reconstructed by Paul Schmelzing for the Bank of England (Staff Working Paper No. 845, 2020).
Data
The dataset covers 78% of advanced economy GDP over time, drawing on archival, printed primary, and secondary sources across successive monetary and fiscal regimes.
Files
| File | Description | Rows |
|---|---|---|
data/headline-rates.csv | Global real rates, 1311–2018 (annual + 7yr avg) | 708 |
data/country-rates.csv | Country-level real rates, 1314–2018 | 4,414 |
Key fields
headline-rates.csv:
global_real_7y— global real rate, 7-year centred average (primary trend series)global_real— global real rate, annualsafe_real_7y/safe_real— safe-asset-provider (e.g. UK gilts, US Treasuries)
country-rates.csv: Italy, UK, Netherlands, Germany, France, United States, Spain, Japan
Source
Paul Schmelzing, "Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, R-G, and the 'Suprasecular' Decline, 1311–2018", Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 845, 2020.
License: Open Government Licence v3.0
Key finding
Since the monetary upheavals of the late Middle Ages, real interest rates have followed a long-run secular decline of 0.6–1.6 basis points per annum. Currently depressed sovereign real rates are convergingback to this historical trend — not evidence of secular stagnation, but a continuation of an 800-year pattern.
This directly challenges Piketty (2014)'s assumption of stable capital returns: the R-G series shows a downward trend over the same timeframe.
Reproduce
pip install openpyxl
python process.py